2010年8月29日星期日

Is Felix or J-Stew the better keeper?

What up Doc,
With our keeper rules, we get one keeper and forfeit the pick used to draft them. My best options are giving up my sixth-round pick to keep Jonathan Stewart(notes) or my eighth-round pick to keep Felix Jones(notes). In either case, I think I'm getting good value, but their respective backfield situations have my head spinning. Is this the year Felix gets a chance to play consistently, or is nfl jerseys he going to be just another back trapped in a three-headed monster? Stewart was a beast for me down the stretch last year, but can I count on him to keep up his production with DeAngelo Williams(notes) healthy? Your answer is much appreciated.

— Jimmy in Philly

I'd say you're in a pretty good spot here, Jimmy. Like you said, you're getting a solid player at a good value either way.

I definitely like Jones quite a bit heading into this season. It seems as though the Cowboys are finally ready to turn him loose after using him somewhat sparingly over his first two years, and he has responded by bulking up to take on a bigger workload. I'm predicting he'll overtake Marion Barber(notes) in terms of production and have a breakout season in a loaded Dallas offense.

That said, my advice to you would be to keep Stewart. While Jones is a slightly better value as an eighth-rounder, he has consistently struggled with injuries (missing 12 games over two pro seasons) and is a bit too risky as your lone keeper. Stewart hasn't been a picture of health, either, but he hasn't missed a game in his career and is set to be a major part of wholesale nfl jerseys the Panthers' offense yet again. Even though Williams is their starter, Stewart should see 12-15 carries every week and is a safe bet for double-digit scores. And he'd be a monster if Williams succumbs to injury. I see him as a safe keeper with a lot of upside. In a league in which QBs get six points for passing TDs, how much value would you put on them, and when should I take one? I know there are a lot of good QBs and normally you would wait to draft one, but in this scoring system I feel QBs should be taken in the first round. Please help me out on this.

— Mike

You're right, Mike: QBs definitely are more valuable in your league than in formats that award only four points for passing scores. Whether or not you should take one in the first round, though, probably depends on your draft position.

If you have one of the first few picks, I wouldn't recommend drafting a QB over any of the elite RBs. I say that because of the drop-off from guys like Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) to the next group of nfl Saints jersey RBs is fairly sizable in my mind. On the other hand, I don't think the falloff from Aaron Rodgers(notes) to Tony Romo(notes) is quite as steep, which is why I'd still go RB early in the first.

Once the top-tier backs are gone, though, it's perfectly fine to draft a QB like Rodgers or Drew Brees(notes). These guys are going to throw for a ton of scores, and in your system, that's equivalent to running or receiving for a boatload of TDs. If you are picking in the mid-to-late first round, I see no problem with grabbing an elite QB and guaranteeing yourself a flurry of points from that position each week.

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